1. China's "DeepSeek moment" triggered an AI selloff.

Global tech shares sold down on 27 January after new AI model DeepSeek challenged AI capital expediture assumptions. Leading AI chipmaker NVIDIA fell nearly 17% in one session, while AI power names like Vistra and GE Vernova fell some 20-30%. Tech volatility has continued since, with the Nasdaq index down 13.6% from its mid-February peak, as of 28 March.

2. But we are confident the AI growth story will continue

4Q24 earnings and forward guidance actually suggest only a limited near-term threat to AI capex. We now expect 35% y/y growth in Big 4 capex spending to USD 302bn, driven by strong demand for frontier models. Potentially lower training and inference costs could also accelerate AI adoption in a growing addressable market, boosting AI monetization in the medium to longer term.

3. So we buy the dip, and see value in actively investing in AI

Like in many industries, we think a mix of low-cost and high-cost AI solutions can coexist, serving different demands and use cases. Given strong near-term visibility for tech, we remain bullish on the AI theme, including large-cap names, leading cloud platforms, and semis. Tariff- and export-control-related uncertainty may spur more volatility ahead. Investors can potentially take advantage via structured strategies and by buying the dip.

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AI disruption and opportunity

21 May 2025

We see the genAI technology transition as a platform shift, owing to the underlying performance of the technology and its universal applicability.

GenAI is expected to expand beyond the technology sector and have wide-reaching implications. The underlying technology of genAI is improving at a rapid pace and being embraced by new industries.

Culture will be a key determinant as to which firms capture the value from genAI rather than be disrupted by it over the long term.

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10 predictions about AI

10 June 2024

1. AI will be the most profound innovation and one of the largest investment opportunities in human history

2. The ratio of monetization potential of the AI application layer to the costs of the enabling and intelligence layers will become a key metric for investment returns

3. AI will kick off a data center capex cycle that will dwarf general purpose data center capex in the next years

4. The AI silicon moment: AI chips will capture a large part of the AI value creation

5. The AI enablers will be the first adopters of AI, driving both revenue and margin upside

6. Monolithic players will emerge along the AI value chain and over time, the AI market will be dominated by an oligopoly of vertically integrated “AI foundries”

7. Software will become ubiquitous

8. Data assets will emerge as the competitive differentiators for AI adopters

9. Despite the increasing number of new open-source models, proprietary models will remain the top performers

10. The application and intelligence layers will merge with artificial general intelligence (AGI)

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Artificial intelligence: Sizing and seizing the investment opportunity

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AI disruption and opportunity

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