Infrastructure inflows: trickles turn to torrents
Mega fund final closes underpin a surge in inflows
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Mega fund final closes underpin a surge in inflows
Infrastructure fundraising pace picks up
A heightened pace has returned to unlisted infrastructure fundraising in the first half of 2025, following a subdued 10 quarters since the rate hiking cycle commenced in mid-2022. The latest indicators show the final closes of closed ended funds raised USD 116 in 1H25.1 This exceeds the total raised in all of 2024, as well as matching the surge of inflows seen in 1H22, when the asset class benefited from the anticipation of the US Inflation Reduction Act and earlier Infrastructure Investment and Job act. The fact that the fundraising market has managed to match this pace, despite a more challenging monetary and geopolitical backdrop, is testament to investors’ ambitions for greater exposure to the asset class.
Ebbs and flows – interim closes matter
The flood of capital raised has been bolstered by a small handful of very large mega funds.2Â This highlights the multi-year journey required to reach final close, with funds typically holding interim closes along the way to begin deploying capital while continuing to raise. The five largest funds to reach final close in 1H25Â accounted for 65% of the total raised by more than 50 funds. Capital consolidation has been a recurring theme of private markets in recent years, as established managers have been able to stretch fundraising targets by leveraging longstanding relationships with investors. Some LPs that entered the asset class later struggle to secure positions in these largest funds, as managers often prefer to prioritize access for investors in prior funds.
Fundraising feedback loops
Dry powder in the asset class is expected to return to growth following a considerable fall over 2024, with weaker fundraising allowing it to fall 15.8% to USD 348.6 bn at 4Q24 – representing 22.0% of total AuM, a historically low level. A pent up supply of assets from funds nearing the end of their lifecycle is expected to meet elevated demand driven by the recent pick up in fundraising. This bodes well for a continued improvement in deal activity, despite data revealing that aggregate deal values in 2024 had already recovered close to 2022 peaks, as the market adjusted to the implications of the higher for longer scenario.
Improving exits for funds aiming to return capital to investors could further reinforce the pick-up in fundraising. Returned capital is often recycled into re-up commitments with existing fund managers or allocated to new managers, helping LPs maintain their target allocations to the growing asset class. Target allocations from institutional investors have continued to rise3, averaging 5.9%4Â on a weighted basis, up 40 basis points (bps) compared to 2024. Actual allocations remain 100 bps below targets, although this gap has narrowed over time.
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